The Predictability Paradox: How Organizations Undermine Their Own Goals
Sr. Consultant - Tiani Jones
At changeforce, we specialize in helping organizations embrace complexity and achieve meaningful, lasting transformation. One of the most persistent challenges we see is the relentless pursuit of predictability. While predictability may seem like the backbone of strategic planning, many organizations inadvertently sabotage it by clinging to rigid processes and focusing on efficiency first before effectiveness which leads to producing the wrong things, efficiently.
This counterproductive cycle is captured by Mary Poppendieck’s Predictability Paradox and illuminated through Lean principles and system dynamics.
Why Predictability Fails: The Work Smarter, Not Harder Dilemma
In their groundbreaking paper, Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems That Never Happened, Nelson Repenning and John Sterman present a compelling diagram contrasting “working harder” versus “working smarter.”
Organizations often default to brute-force efforts, squeezing their systems for incremental gains (working harder). This short-sighted strategy temporarily boosts productivity but worsens bottlenecks and system inefficiencies over time, leading to declining capability and performance.
On the other hand, working smarter focuses on addressing the root causes of inefficiencies. By rethinking processes and balancing capacity, organizations achieve sustainable, predictable results—proving that long-term resilience beats short-term intensity every time.
The Predictability Paradox in Action
Organizations perpetuate the paradox in several key ways:
1. Over-Speculation
Excessive documentation and static plans masquerade as preparedness. This speculative approach ignores a fundamental truth: systems and markets are dynamic, not static.
2. Rigid Practices in Complex Systems
Complexity demands flexibility, but organizations often double down on rigid processes. As Mary Poppendieck points out, reducing optionality in a complex system creates brittleness, leading to product quality issues and team frustration.
3. Institutionalized Waste
Common inefficiencies that derail predictability include:
Partially Done Work: Incomplete tasks slow progress and create long-term inefficiencies.
Task Switching: Splitting focus disrupts “flow,” a critical state for high productivity.
Delays and Handoffs: Prolonged feedback loops and siloed teams slow decisions and degrade outcomes.
The Smarter Solution: Lean Principles in Action
To escape the paradox, organizations must embrace Lean-inspired strategies that focus on adaptability, effectiveness, and smarter systems:
Start Early, Learn Constantly
Engage teams from the beginning to iteratively refine deliverables and adapt to evolving needs.Delay Commitment
Make decisions at the last responsible moment to ensure they’re grounded in current realities.Deliver Fast
Reduce batch sizes, deliver value frequently, and gather real-time feedback to fine-tune what truly works.Eliminate Problematic Waste
Not all waste is created equal. Use tools like Wardley Mapping to identify where waste is tolerable versus where it undermines efficiency:In Genesis and Custom-Built stages, waste is a natural part of innovation and exploration.
In Product and Commodity stages, waste must be minimized to preserve competitive advantage.
By aligning work to the maturity of its context, Wardley Mapping empowers organizations to tackle inefficiencies strategically, without over-optimizing at the expense of innovation.
The Path Forward: Stability Meets Flexibility
Predictability isn’t about relentless efficiency—it’s about smarter systems. Addressing systemic inefficiencies with Lean principles creates processes that are both adaptable and reliable.
At changeforce, we help organizations achieve this balance, ensuring they thrive in uncertainty while working smarter, not harder. Let’s build a future where your team achieves true predictability without compromising flexibility.
References
Poppendieck, M., & Poppendieck, T. (Lean Software Development: An Agile Toolkit, Addison-Wesley, 2003).
Repenning, N., & Sterman, J. (Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems That Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement, IEEE Engineering Management Review, 2003).
Ready to reimagine predictability?
Contact bob.gower@changeforce.ai to learn more about how we can help your organization work smarter and achieve your goals.
Tiani Jones Senior Consultant, Org Effectiveness
